Is technical demography becoming less relevant? two decade review of published articles in selected demography journals

Background: In this paper, we reviewed development in the field of technical demography and empirically demonstrate that there has been a decline in the proportion of technical demographic studies published in the last two decades. Methods: All original articles published in nine demographic journals from Africa, Europe, Australia, Canada and United States were reviewed. We derived yearly aggregate for total number of articles and number of technical demographic papers from 1994 to 2015. We illustrated the trends in the proportion of technical demographic studies in a graph and also estimated the annual rate of decline using least square regression techniques. Results: A total of 4091 studies were published in 465 issues of the selected journals between 1994 and 2015 of which 371 (9.0%) were related to technical demography. The proportion of technical demographic papers declined gradually at an annual rate of 0.42% (CI= 0.29-0.62) between 1994 (12.0%) and 2015 (10.0%). Conclusion: Technical demography need to be strengthened in order to provide the critical data and evidence required to objectively monitor the post-2015 development goals

Temporal distribution of baseline characteristics and association with early mortality among HIV-positive patients at University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria

The first six months of HIV care and treatment are very important for long-term outcome. Early mortality (within 6 months of care initiation) undermines care and treatment goals. This study assessed the temporal distribution in baseline characteristics and early mortality among HIV patients at the University College Hospital; Ibadan; Nigeria from 2006-2013. Factors associated with early mortality were also investigated. This was a retrospective analysis of data from 14 857 patients enrolled for care and treatment at the adult antiretroviral clinic of the University College Hospital; Ibadan; Nigeria. Effects of factors associated with early mortality were summarised using a hazard ratio with a 95% confidence interval obtained from Cox proportional hazard regression models. The mean age of the subjects was 36.4 (SD=10.2) years with females being in the majority (68.1%). While patients' demographic characteristics remained virtually the same over time; there was significant decline in the prevalence of baseline opportunistic infections (2006-2007=55.2%; 2011-2013=38.0%). Overall; 460 (3.1%) patients were known to have died within 6 months of enrollment in care/treatment. There was no significant trend in incidence of early mortality. Factors associated with early mortality include: male sex; HIV encephalopathy; low CD4 count ( 50 cells); and anaemia. To reduce early mortality; community education should be promoted; timely access to care and treatment should be facilitated and the health system further strengthened to care for high risk patients